Elliman Insights: Navigating A Volatile Market

Douglas Elliman brokers and other experts weigh in with advice for buyers and sellers. —by Bernadette Starzee Central Park with Autumn Colors during Dusk, New York City This year’s real estate market has been a roller-coaster ride. After starting strong in a humming economy, sales ground to a halt during the COVID-19 lockdown. A lost spring gave way to a busy summer as pent-up supply and demand were unleashed, spurring new listings and contracts. But as 2020 cedes to a new year, no one is quite sure where this coaster is headed. COVID-19 first took aim at New York City, pushing people to the suburbs and beyond. Second-home owners in places like Florida and Aspen stayed for months longer than usual, feeling safer in less populated areas. And Zoom caught on like wildfire, spurring many people to envision living thousands of miles from the office. Real estate agents have been keeping up on trends and removing whatever uncertainties they can to help clients navigate a most unusual market. The pandemic had two effects: It made people realize that life is more important than going to work, and that you can work from anywhere,” — Stacey Kelly SURPRISING RESILIENCY 59th Street Manhattan in autumn from the Central Park South, New York City. “Despite the s, housing markets have shown resilience,” says Jonathan Miller, presidentCEO of Miller Samuel Inc. Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. Steven Cohen In Manhattan, the year started with a busy first quarter, when sales activity jumped 13.5 percent compared to the first quarter of 2019. “People were anticipating a strong year,” says Manhattan-based associate broker Steven Cohen . But when COVID-19 hit, those who could leave the city did, at least temporarily. “This helped finalize plans for people who were on the cusp of moving out or getting a second home,” he explains. “It’s a good time to buy for first-time buyers and for apartments under $3 million, but discounts are not where some buyers hoped,” says Lauren Muss , a Manhattan-based associate broker. “Sellers have to remember where they were pre-COVID and what the price should have been then. If they could get close to that or a little below, they should consider themselves lucky; in my opinion there will be little change upward next year.” EXPANDING HORIZONS Many city dwellers flocking to the suburbs looked at Connecticut and liked what they saw. “They’re discovering our low property taxes and beautiful waterfront,’’ says Jennifer Leahy , a Douglas Elliman salesperson in Greenwich. “There has been a major absorption of properties that had been on the market for a long time.” There’s very little inventory below $4 million, she notes, so “it’s about being smart about the market. Inventory is getting absorbed if it’s priced correctly.” Meanwhile, Florida, which had been gaining New Yorkers and others fleeing high-tax states for several years, welcomed more Manhattan escapees. In Miami-Dade, contracted sales jumped 36.2 percent in May versus that month in 2019, a record year. The “Snowbird Expresses”—car carriers that ferry seasonal residents’ automobiles north each spring—didn’t come this year, says Matthias Fretz , senior director of luxury sales in Jupiter and Palm Beach. “Those who were already renting decided not to return to New York or New Jersey,” he notes. “For people who had a notion to move here full-time because of the tax climate, COVID was the final push.” Interest in single-family homes has been rising, along with prices, notes Burt Minkoff , a senior director of luxury sales who covers Palm Beach and West Palm Beach. STEADFAST MARKETS Stacey Kelly Looking west to Colorado’s Aspen Snowmass area, where 70 percent of the market is second homes, “The pandemic had two effects: It made people realize that life is more important than going to work, and that you can work from anywhere,” says broker Stacey Kelly . “We’re seeing a large influx of people investigating moving here full-time. People understand that with Zoom, their office doesn’t have to be on Fifth Avenue; it can be on Main Street in Aspen, and at lunch they can do a couple of ski runs.” Aspen, CO Along with the increase in demand, there’s been a decrease in motivation for homeowners to sell, says Riley Warwick , a broker associate. “Some who were considering selling decided to stay in their Aspen house all summer instead,” he says. His advice to buyers: “If you love it, negotiate a fair deal and pull the trigger. A lot of people are kicking themselves now because they had an opportunity to get a property for 20 percent less a few months ago.” Total transactions through the first half of the year in downtown Boston fell 24 percent, but the median sales price rose 5 percent, in part because of two new luxury condo complexes, One Dalton and Echelon Seaport, says salesperson George Sarkis . Boston Public Garden “People are still buying in Boston. We always have strong fundamentals, with the hospitals and colleges here,” Sarkis notes. “And the suburbs are smoking hot. Single-family homes from $1 million to $3 million have bidding wars.” Before COVID-19, the greater Los Angeles market was characterized by rising prices, rising sales, and falling inventory. Inventory remains low in upscale enclaves like Santa Monica, Brentwood, and Pacific Palisades, where “there’s never much turnover,” says LA–based agent David Solomon . “No one wants to leave. But there could be deals for buyers willing to pull the trigger.” It’s not a matter of if— it’s a matter of when. Manhattan always comes back stronger. — Steven Cohen   And Manhattan is still Manhattan. “Like I said after 911 and the 2008 market crash, it’s not a matter of if—it’s a matter of when,” Cohen says. “We always come back, and we come back stronger. Find your next place to call home today.